Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."